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Energy consumption per capita remains
In "Dematerialisation", the rate of market
virtually stable for the next 30 years
penetration for identified renewable energy -
An attempt is made here to illustrate what energy
wind, biomass, PV solar - is lower than in
supply would be consistent with
"Sustained Growth". The second wave of
"Dematerialisation". Improvement in energy
renewables is not needed until 2060.
intensity gradually reaches a sustained 2% p.a. To
support a 3% p.a. growth in GDP, primary energy
Conclusions
increases at about 1.3% p.a. until 2030, as
Hydrocarbons are needed for economic
developing economies expand. Thereafter, energy
development
growth slows down to 1% p.a., as
"Dematerialisation", started in the more advanced
" Productivity improvement in supply and use
regions of OFCD countries, gradually spreads to
will continue
industrialising and developing countries, once
Energy needs will be met by more diverse
infrastructure has been built and GDP per capita is
sources
high enough. Countries restructuring their
economies would improve their energy
"Carbon free" newcomers can become
efficiencies drastically.
competitive through market mechanisms.
Markets will decide which technology is
Coal and oil growth is lower in
best
"Dematerialisation" than in "Sustained Growth".
CO2 emissions from fossil fuels peak at
However, more gas is being used to compensate
around 10 GtC before the middle of the next
for the delayed take-off of PV solar, postponed
century and decline to 4GtC/year by 2100,
from 2020 to 2050. This technology remains a
leading to stabilisation of CO2 content in the
niche application until nanotechnology becomes
atmosphere at about 550 - 600 ppm,
widely applicable!
according to current models, or 60% above
A 2% p.a improvement in energy intensity has
today's level.
only been seen for limited periods in the past. In
"Dematerialisation", relentless advances in
CO2 Emission - Fossil Fuels
information technology, telecommunication,
G-tonnes C
materials and biotechnology would enable high
20 -
Milmate change panel ,
energy intensity improvements to be sustained for
18
several decades.
*.Sustained Growth
Dematerialisation
exajoules
Dematerialisation
1500
Surprise
Geoth.
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Solar
1000
Biomass
OWind
Nuclear
Hydro
Among many different possible paths along which
[ Gas
the world energy system could develop,
500-
oil & NGL
F. Coal
Sustained Growth" and "Dematerialisation" are
Trad Bio.
two sustainable and plausible archetypes which
could happen through market mechanisms and
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
with minimum stimulation. These scenarios
provide low economic cost options to policy
A different life style, possibly linked to changing
makers and are genuinely "no regret".
individuals' and customers' behaviour, could
Like 100 years ago, there are many talents in the
emerge. Signs may already be perceivable such as
world. Provided governments maintain a
virtual reality, but consequences are difficult to
framework in which inventiveness, competition
anticipate fully, perhaps similar to the scale of
and productivity are encouraged and rewarded
changes brought about by the automobile and
and where decisions are the result of a rational
individual mobility during the 20th century.
and open debate, business can do a lot to support
sustained economic growth, supplying and using
energy in an environmentally responsible manner.
Source: https://www.industrydocuments.ucsf.edu/docs/pgfl0228

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